PMC Adoption Curve
PRESENT
Current PMCs are innovators focusing on an early adopter customer base on the adoption curve, because their target customer base is so small – namely states who can afford their prices and have a purpose to utilize their products. This is the focus of the major players – as evidenced by Blackwater’s latest brigade size product offering and DynCorp selecting and training Liberia’s military.
FUTURE
The chasm is actually an extended upward slope on the adoption curve, which has been removed for aesthetic reasons and replaced by a chasm to allow Geoffrey A. Moore to make his million. It does however illustrate a point previously made here – when the current market is saturated/reaching efficiency a tipping point will be reached (also called potential, maximal point or the chasm) sparking radical innovation to garner increased profits.
Current trends hint that we are somewhere beyond the innovator stage, in the early adopter phase and approaching the chasm.
In the period immediately after the chasm we can hope to see the positive effects of privatization as new rule sets emerge. Competition will center around specific points (economy of violence, efficiency, cost effectiveness etc)
RAMIFICATIONS
The major impact made by PMCs will come as the state evolves (decentralization due to security concerns, market state) and the customer base expands (causing the amount of primary competitors to increase). Gradually that customer base will approach 100%.
Bottom up self regulation is caused by market forces- data proves customers stop buying products that offend them. Past the chasm this is likely to prove to be the case. The period of concern is the transition period between now and then. The shifting rule set is a time of great uncertainty.
*While I have an idea as to how long this process will take, I am not comfortable making a prediction at this time. I may in the future as the fog clears and trends become more apparant.
-Shlok
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