Clash of Titans
I had to come out of hiding for the Barnett vs. Robb friction (good posts at Zenpundit and Phatic Communion -which is back on the blogroll) with a quote from Kevin Kelly’s older book “New Rules for the New Economy” (Kelly is a cofounder/editor of Wired and someone who really gets the new world of networks – his great book is available online through that link ):
There are two elementary kinds of loops: Self-negating loops such as thermostats and toilet bowl valves, which create feedback loops that regulate themselves, and self-reinforcing loops, which are loops that foster runaway growth such as increasing returns and network effects.
Bottom line is Barnett is looking for self reinforcing feedback loops and Robb keeps a finger on the negative feedback loops regulating the international system.
As is nature – the negative will outweigh and dictate the positive. Things get worse (and will) before they get better. There is a larger framework at play shaping the international system, but it’s not Barnett’s vision. Disruptive innovation overcomes sustaining innovation.
Off Grid
I apologize for the dela in postings. It’s extremely good to get off grid occasionally, clear and reboot. I should be back and posting regularly in a day or two. Thanks for the emails.
A New Clandestine Service
Just ran across a paper by Reuel Marc Gerecht (former CIA analyst) titled A New Clandestine Service: The Case for Creative Destruction (PDF). Good piece that points out the inherint flaws in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations – which is what the CINC, the DNI and the incoming Hayden want the agency to focus on – and which is what Goss was opposed to (which led to his firing).
Hayden’s going to face this problem, and the one of the ever expanding DOD, led by Rumsfield who wants in house core collectors. (BTW – do we often promote managers who failed on 9/11, failed on Iraq, and violate the Constitution?)
The phrase “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic” comes to mind.
Kidnapping in Iraq
NYT – This article sheds a lot of light on this expanding industry –
Sometimes, kidnappings are used to solve tribal and commercial disputes — “a business negotiation tactic,” Mr. Rye said. But most are for profit, Iraqi and American officials say, and are resolved by ransom payments that average $30,000 — a hefty sum in a country where per capita annual income is only $1,050.
As the kidnap industry has matured, investigators have seen cooperation evolve between criminal groups, and between them and the insurgency. Victims are sometimes sold and resold, gaining value each time, investigators say.
At the same time, divisions of labor have also developed in the largest and most organized groups, with members specializing in duties like surveillance, abduction, transportation, guarding and negotiations.
…almost all kidnapping cases in Iraq are resolved without the involvement, or even knowledge, of government authorities.
Jamestown Panel Discussion
Saudi Arabian Oil Facilities: The Achilles Heel of the Western Economy
Jamestown has what looks to be an interesting panel discussion on the 15’th. Stephen Ulph (who just recently caught onto oil system disruption) is speaking as is Michael Scheuer (the formerly anonymous author of Imperial Hubris) and Dr. John C.K. Daly. Info on the event here.
I have been looking for a conference to attend for quite some time. None of the events match my criteria though (quiet, smart guys from all backgrounds that have an understanding of the status quo, the framework and are willing to collaborate on solutions). This one lacks 3/4 of these criteria.
That said, this should be a worthwhile experience for anyone in DC.
UPDATE: Robb says this sounds more like Hollywood than worthwhile information for policy creation.