Visualizing Just-In-Time Systems
I’m a firm advocate that Occam’s ultimate razor for complex international phenomena is depiction in comic strips. Thanks to Adrian, we have a couple depicting just-in-time supply chains in a declining system:
Resiliency Overview
A smart reporter looking to explore the topic of resiliency (as defined by John Robb, Jamais Cascio and myself among others) asked for a reading list. I’ll be putting together a packet during my free time over the next couple days (suggestions are welcome) but also offered this short overview:
Resiliency as we see it is the next iteration of modern/sophisticated warfare (there are other viewpoints, primarily coming from the peak oil community). This framework is useful in an era where the ability to absorb and dissipate systemic shocks is a much more viable strategy than any offensive effort (Iraq, Afghanistan).
Unfortunately, current generation governance platforms (nation-states) are ill equipped to deal with extremely agile technologically empowered groups (both those that pose a threat, and those clustering at the sub-national level that seek to provide governance solutions). As the security environment deteriorates, we will see next generation governance platforms rise. That is the nut that resiliency analysts are now racing against the clock to crack. A large part of it will be effectively hyper-localizing all supply chains (including all levels of Maslow’s Hierarchy, including education, knowledge, security, food, etc).
Threats: 100 Days Follow Up
The excellent team that brought you Threats in the Age of Obama has asked for a 100 day follow up to see how our individual chapters have played out thus far. (An interesting exercise in a media environment that does very little scorecarding of punditry.)
Unfortunately, I’ve been incredibly busy working on some very exciting stuff and haven’t had time to post until now. (A move, consulting, and backbreaking labor outdoors will do that to you.) Fractional employment aside, here goes.
The team consists of editor: Michael Tanji and authors Dan tdaxp, Christopher Albon, Matt Armstrong, Matthew Burton, Molly Cernicek, Christopher Corpora, Shane Deichman, Adam Elkus, Matt Devost, Bob Gourley, Art Hutchinson, Tom Karako, Carolyn Leddy, Samuel Liles, Adrian Martin, Gunnar Peterson, Cheryl Rofer, Mark Safranski, Steve Schippert, and Tim Stevens. Nimble Books
My chapter, Reconfiguring the National Security Architecture described a design philosophy that could be used to build a lean, scalable, and resilient governance platform. The idea is to lay the gridwork for a ‘soft landing’ vs. a ‘hard landing’ as we enter an increasingly turbulent era. (I’ve gotten some excellent feedback from readers in four different countries working on the future of warfare and resiliency. I’d love to have your input as well, let me know if you would like to read it.)
If we take the example of the swine flu, it becomes clear that government is ill suited to adapt itself to a new epoch. (Regardless of the H1N1 lethality, which won’t be properly gauged until the fall, a rapid viral threat is a good measure of disconnectedness.) Instead of equipping the masses (the most useful way to do this is knowledge) we had to, again, rely on ad-hoc citizen and private sector good will. The same dynamic emerged during the tsunami, southern California fires, and Katrina.
Going forward, what we should be seeing is the implementation of a variety of silo-crashing, hierarchy-shattering platforms. Not likely to be the case. DoD budget levels remain stagnant while community functions (which actually have a track record of providing security) are gutted as state and local governments wither and die. (In other words, ad-hoc bolting on of governance functions, without any discernible design philosophy continues untouched.)
Note: This is regardless of politics, which I largely don’t care about, but rather a function of large scale government decision making. Structural changes, such as those I suggested, can change that process, but so far, we’ve only seen the superficial implementation of organization-changing technology. We need a deep rethink. (The cool part is that this can begin at the micro/subnational level, but the right leadership with the right vision needs to be in place.)
How Climate Change Can Take Down Infrastructure
Chatham House has an interesting short new paper on why extended just-in-time supply chains aren’t sustainable in the long run.
Is the Sole Purpose of A Site Specific Browser…
…that you can see the multiple windows of your browser in the dock? (Fluid or Prism)