Tinkering In Response to Local Threats
Stephen Ganyard has a great op-ed in the NYT today on how disasters are local and ‘flat’ training exercises (flat as in zero overhead and broad participation) can generate tinkering activity that can be used to create “$25 solutions to multimillion dollar problems.” I’m as much a fan of Golden Phoenix as anyone, but it needs to be said: this is an inefficient way of solving a broader problem.
Think of each one of these exercises as a point on a timeline, where information transfer takes place that enables that tinkering (key to any kind of success). Any innovation that occurs beyond the actual exercise (Ganyard’s example of Angel Flight West and Project K.I.D.) is residual. You’re much better off seeing a trendline rather than isolated points. (Sure you can connect the dots, but that’s a classic federal government trick to lie to everyone.)
Information platforms actually provide a way to maintain strong information links that enable strong information transfer over time. By building those information platforms from the bottom up rather than top down (i.e. fusion centers that I can’t access for some byzantine reason) we can see this same type of tinkering activity occur as a function of leadership rather than a residual byproduct.
Review: Star Trek
In order of preference, I wanted to see Terminator: Salvation, Wolverine, and Star Trek.
However, an Army special ops type buddy had free passes to Star Trek and off we went. To be frank, I was never a Trekkie and have never actually sat down to watch any sort of ST movie before this.
Mild spoiler alert:
I came away entertained, though parts of that movie were incredibly trite (the child sequence killed the great first ten minutes build up, as did the little toy Enterprise after the motivational speech soon thereafter). Buddy was cracking up during the entire HALO sequence. As I was during the Cloverfield sequence. And the whole thing had a Lost-esque quality to it.
End spoiler.
In terms of military reform however, if that’s the way we’re still running militaries in 1,000 years, we’re better off just giving up. Rigid hierarchicies, hundreds if not thousands of individuals on board a single craft (compare to a Predator), and West Point to the N’th degree (which should be exploded).
With that in mind, I’m still looking forward to the new Terminator. Hopefully I’ll be seeing it in the next couple days.
Being Taught In School
Cool. Just learned that my work at Naxalite Rage is being used by a few colleges in Kashmir for their international relations and business programs.
Idea: Leveraging Car Dealership Information Streams
Here’s a unique business niche for the right team that wants to leverage information flows to mediate the car dealership experience. Properly executed, a dealership is reduced to just being a function of capital, inventory, and space. Very lean once the start up costs are in place. No sales team (free targeted information flows instead). TestDrive helps dealers sell inventory, earn a small profit, and users don’t have to waste time/money.
Current system:
Individuals do most of their car testing online: research, reviews, maintenance projections, etc. This is information work. (There’s some opportunity in this space alone: compiling and processing those flows into an easy to use interface would be both a worthwhile and rewarding business.) Then they go out, put up with dealership up-selling, test drive (currently near-useless for 90% of the population), go home, look up prices, and then head to the right dealership (and put up with more up-selling in the process), then drive home a car.
Future:
So, lets call it TestDrive, empowered by the right information flows (partly sourced from the dealerships) could mediate this user process. Surviving dealerships will be essentially stacks of inventory (a result of a mechanic + land). User logs on, looks for a couple cars they want, and reports this list to the service. TestDrive shows up, picks up user in vehicle of choice, answers questions (without concern of commission – enforced by reputation), and drops user off. (This saves dealerships of costs associated with large amounts of retail space in dense urban areas.) TD repeats this process as many times as necessary (perhaps earning a small fee on the part of user or dealer). Once user fixes on a car, TestDrive pulls offers from its various stacks and helps mediate negotiations.
Idea: Car Dealership Business Model
As we continue watching JIT systems crash (a function of credit intensity) we’re also going to see other credit intensive systems start to deteriorate and enter decline periods.
Currently, Chrysler is paving the way forward for car dealerships by abruptly shutting them down. What should a dealer do in this environment? Many will die, others will consolidate, and still others will experience vertical momentum (either up- or down-market).
Here’s some smart thinking for those who want to survive:
- Dealerships are platforms. Services provided include: targeted information streams, maintenance, and large chunk of land for inventory management. Time to add value to those services. Think of your business having just lost its primary flow source (your largest customer, the builder of the car).
- Current model relies on a large chunk of land that allows for directed swarming (on the part of semi-independent salesmen and interested customers). Offload the costs of this swarming (embrace the crowd). For example: Let individuals looking to sell used cars place their vehicles on your land and you sell them in exchange for a commission. You already pay your sales staff commission only.
- Yes, the only thing you may have left is a the husk of your business plan – your land. Repurpose as much as you can. Rip up the concrete to enable other uses (storage, food growth, fruit stands, soccer fields with concession stands, whatever). Large buildings can be used for local manufacturing or office-share systems.
- Maintenance of the current vehicle fleet may be your only source of revenue. Get good at it, with an enhanced reputation. Try to absorb local cheap mechanics with great reputations, offer them greater shares and put your targeted information flows (sales team) to work building them business. Again, you may only provide the tools and land, but its better than zero.
With this, you’ll be able to sustain a living. Probably not the absurd level you’ve been used to, but you’ll get by, unless you can totally rethink your business and get lucky.