Economist On Oil
Bubble thinking about oil peaking in the Economist –
In fact, oil production capacity might actually grow sharply over the next few years…
…Technological breakthroughs such as multi-lateral drilling helped defy predictions of decline in Britain’s North Sea that have been made since the 1980s: the region is only now peaking…
…New technologies like 4-D seismic analysis and electromagnetic “direct detection” of hydrocarbons are lifting that “recovery rate”, and even a rise of a few percentage points would provide more oil to the market than another discovery on the scale of those in the Caspian or North Sea.
Incremental innovation will not be enough, especially when potential is decreasing due to other than pure supply constraints (global guerrillas). Manufactured fuels will prolong the life of oil, but not for the 15-20 years the article discusses.
-Shlok
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