How Many Economists Should Be Fired?

National Association for Business Economics survey:

Nearly half – 47% – of surveyed economists said overall industry demand was falling, compared with 35% who said so in the October survey. Just 10% of respondents said profit margins were rising, compared with 52% who believe they are falling. And 38% of economists said capital expenses are falling, up from just 15% in October.

Just 22% believed the U.S. economy would expand this year, down from 62% who thought so in October. Although 26% now believe the economy will shrink less than 1% this year, 52% now think the economy will shrink by more than 1%, which no one predicted in October.

Let’s do some econo-math on these numbers:

  • 35%, in October, estimated demand falling. That number jumped to 47% this time. 47-35= 12% cut.
  • 62% in October thought the economy would expand in 2009 , down to 22%. Should be sliced right off the top, starting with the 22%.
  • 10% still think profit margins are rising. All slashed.
  • 26% think the economy will shrink less than 1% this year. Overly optimistic, half fired.

In sum: 12%+10%+62%+13% = 97% of economists should be fired.

*(Oops. Bold = all caps.)

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  • Chris Albon
    Jan 26, 2009

    Since a single economist in all likelihood provided datapoints on multiple variables, 12%+10%+62%+13% = 97% makes little sense. For example, the same people who think profit margins are rising can also think estimated demand is falling.

  • Chris,

    Whole post is tongue in cheek 😉

    Kind off put off by continued reliance on the same guys who epically failed, with normal folk holding left holding the bag.


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