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Calculating Friedman’s MisPredictions

Vanity Fair does just that. Does anyone aggregate pundit accuracy data?



-Shlok
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1 Comment
  • You know by now that I have a loathing of Friedman that borders (well, to be honest, crosses that border) on irrational. But at the same time I think it’s a problem inherent to the newspaper business. You have someone pronounce on high week after week, and the biggest stars are inevitably the ones who make the boldest predictions.

    While Friedman was been more incorrect than most I don’t really think there’s been a pundit who hasn’t had a string of major blunders. It’s the difference that Philip Tetlock wrote about with “hedgehogs and foxes.”

    But thanks to digitization there is more of a track record–you can build up a timeline. Will this be an incentive for pundits to make more careful pronouncements? In the short to medium run, probably not. In the long term? Maybe.

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