Someone Almost gets OSW
Michael B. Kraft touches on open source warfare –
It is still out there. It is growing more dangerous because it is decentralized and can emerge from self starters who are inspired by al-Qaeda, live in the target country and are willing to blow up their neighbors. The next time the terrorists might be lucky and escape undetected, perhaps because some investigator could not connect the dots or get their superiors to pay enough attention, as an FBI agent testified in the Moussaoui case.
Its nice to see pseudo mainstream understand something about terrorism. Even if it is almost 2 years late.
Gartenstein-Ross Gets It
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross gets it when it comes to Abdul Rahman (last post) –
This case makes clear that the threat to converts out of Islam does not just come from the state, but from private citizens as well. And it makes clear that the belief that apostates deserve death is not an aberration, but is more widespread that many would like to acknowledge. The resolution of this case may well be a barometer of Afghanistan’s future, and the future of democracy in the Middle East.
Christian Convert Fiasco
Time – The Afghani who converted to Christianity (16 years ago) and was in danger of being executed (apostasy is against Afghani law) is set to be released. For whatever reason (likely a great effort on the part of the antigovernment forces in the area to exploit the gap between the Afghanis and their US patrons) this became an international issue.
Very few recognize that Abdul Rahman is marked for death by enemies of the government. His post-release death will be a symbolic victory for those groups in Afghanistan attempting to garner the moral high ground and win the war.
We don’t seem to be understanding morality is based on context, and in doing so we just played into the hands of the enemy. Karzai’s effectiveness just took a major hit. Expect a greater decline when Rahman is killed by a non state actor.
No Free Pass
John Robb draws makes a startling series of predictions regarding Iraq, drawing in part from this article –
The cycle of revenge will continue to escalate — Zarqawi pulled it off (he’s likely off to Jordan now, his job in Iraq is done). Here’s a likely scenario: US troops, caught between a government that has outsourced security to militias and the guerrillas, will hide by entrenching themselves in their bases. That won’t help. There will be attempts at intervention to prevent wholesale slaughter, but these events will only increase tensions with the militias. Eventually, these militias in combination with the guerrillas will cut supply lines to US bases. Unable to function, there will be an attempt at a belated withdrawal. It won’t be pretty.
As usual he’s on target. We’re about to watch one of the most dramatic moments in history.
The Doom Loop in Government
An older S+B article nails why some companies are failing to innovate correctly – this also applies to our increasingly isolated government.
The risk such companies face is getting caught in a development dynamic where innovation is driven not by a focus on what the customer values and is willing to pay for, but on solving an engineering problem. This dynamic leads to an internally focused development cycle [Kevin] Dehoff has nicknamed “the doom loop.” In this iterative process, satisfying the customer becomes a secondary concern…
In our case the primary “engineering problem” is providing security. The trajectories chosen (DoD and DHS’s ineffective spending) are entirely wrong – especially top down nation building – and the attempts to fix the various problems along these pathways are each an interation of the doom loop. Each of these iterations saps some level of legitimacy as well as a degree of tax payer dollars. There is a critical point to be reached.