Automatically Detecting Disruptive Technology
The tough nut on this is the ‘prior performance’ of ‘expert opinion’.
Earlier this year, the agency solicited proposals for a system that would evaluate and rank the value of expert opinion based on niche, learning style, prior performance and “other attributes predictive of accuracy.”
The end-product that Iarpa’s after would start by poring over sets of loosely related documents, like studies, patents and government reports, on topics as specific as facial recognition or as broad as artificial intelligence. Algorithms would then weigh factors like key words, publication dates and locations, pin down trends over time, and come up with a series of statements and rankings to provide “compelling evidence” that a given innovation or idea will either emerge or fizzle.
Read More http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/10/u-s-spies-want-algorithms-to-spot-hot-trends/#ixzz118bkUDT5
-Shlok
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