Indian Bombings
The Hindu –
At least 137 people were killed and 230 injured in a string of seven terror blasts that tore through first class compartments of suburban trains around 6PM during the peak hour traffic here today.
IMMEDIATE IMPACT
In terms of “who did it” Muslim fundamentalists of some organization, possibly linked but more than likely inspired by the organic terrorists of London and the economic shooters of Bangalore. Chances are they were not organic in the sense they came together for this attack though they may be homegrown Indian Muslim terrorists.
This operation targeted the economic viability (which provides the state legitimacy) of the city of Mumbai. The first class compartments are utilized by the rising middle class, the lifeblood of the new Indian economy. The train system is absolutely critical infrastructure as the main throughfare from residential areas to key economic zones. Disrupting this system basically shuts down the economy for any given period of time. This is likely to be mostly disregarded in the noise surrounding the death count but is the more significant impact.
SHORT TERM IMPACT
There are three main fear vectors – go home, utilize public road transportation in the form of buses, or utilize the taxi/auto system. Home is the best and logical choice for individuals, but not in the interest of the state.
The other two (buses and taxi depots) are very likely to be targets of follow up attacks with most buses being overcrowded and guarded by a lone sapoy with a stick. With the entire Indian security system based on the idea that with one or two security nodes everywhere word will get to the more powerful who actually have the capacity to respond. This leaves the system open to lightning in and out attacks.
Whether or not these attacks take form will be dictated by the size and degree of innovation cultured in the organization conducting these actions. Based on whether they take advantage of fear vectors can help us gauge how far along the GG trajectory they are. An advanced group will seek to expand the “shutdown” timespan.
LONG TERM IMPACT
Look for more of the same, attacks concentrated on the economic hubs of states with significant cultural fault lines targeted at exploiting those rifts in order to fragment the state.
From an organic security perspective look for international cooperation to increase, India and Pakistan relations to destabilize (and in turn India-US relations to some degree, offset by how the nuclear deal plays out).
-Shlok
Sign up for my newsletter.