How Many Economists Should Be Fired?
National Association for Business Economics survey:
Nearly half – 47% – of surveyed economists said overall industry demand was falling, compared with 35% who said so in the October survey. Just 10% of respondents said profit margins were rising, compared with 52% who believe they are falling. And 38% of economists said capital expenses are falling, up from just 15% in October.
Just 22% believed the U.S. economy would expand this year, down from 62% who thought so in October. Although 26% now believe the economy will shrink less than 1% this year, 52% now think the economy will shrink by more than 1%, which no one predicted in October.
Let’s do some econo-math on these numbers:
- 35%, in October, estimated demand falling. That number jumped to 47% this time. 47-35= 12% cut.
- 62% in October thought the economy would expand in 2009 , down to 22%. Should be sliced right off the top, starting with the 22%.
- 10% still think profit margins are rising. All slashed.
- 26% think the economy will shrink less than 1% this year. Overly optimistic, half fired.
In sum: 12%+10%+62%+13% = 97% of economists should be fired.
*(Oops. Bold = all caps.)
-Shlok
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Jan 26, 2009
Since a single economist in all likelihood provided datapoints on multiple variables, 12%+10%+62%+13% = 97% makes little sense. For example, the same people who think profit margins are rising can also think estimated demand is falling.
Jan 26, 2009
Chris,
Whole post is tongue in cheek 😉
Kind off put off by continued reliance on the same guys who epically failed, with normal folk holding left holding the bag.
S